Find Paper, Faster
Example:10.1021/acsami.1c06204 or Chem. Rev., 2007, 107, 2411-2502
Urban climate change: A statistical analysis for São Paulo
Urban Climate  (IF5.731),  Pub Date : 2022-01-13, DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101077
Fernanda Valente, Márcio Laurini

In this paper we propose novel statistical decompositions of climatic time series into long-term trend, seasonal and cycle components to analyze the existence of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. The main contribution is the generalization of these decompositions to extreme values, probability of rain and the duration of dry days. We apply these methods for the metropolitan region of São Paulo. This region is characterized by a rapid urbanization process and a high population density, which is related to increased danger and vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards. We analyzed daily series of temperature and precipitation between 1933 and 2019 from Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences of University of São Paulo (IAG-USP) and the results indicate a significant increase in the trend component of daily temperature and in the rain patterns. In addition, the analysis for annual temperature records and annual records of daily rainfall show support for the hypothesis of permanent changes in observed climatic patterns. On the other hand, there is no significant evidence of changes in the pattern of duration of dry days nor changes in the trend component for the annual maximum of dry days, indicating the stability of this component.