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Elevated police turnover following the summer of George Floyd protests: A synthetic control study
Criminology & Public Policy  (IF4.333),  Pub Date : 2021-08-26, DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12556
Scott M. Mourtgos, Ian T. Adams, Justin Nix

Several of the largest U.S. police departments reported a sharp increase in officer resignations following massive public protests directed at policing in the summer of 2020. Yet, to date, no study has rigorously assessed the impact of the George Floyd protests on police resignations. We fill this void using 60 months of employment data from a large police department in the western United States. Bayesian structural time-series modeling shows that voluntary resignations increased by 279% relative to the synthetic control, and the model predicts that resignations will continue at an elevated level. However, retirements and involuntary separations were not significantly affected during the study period.