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Gang-related crime in Los Angeles remained stable following COVID-19 social distancing orders
Criminology & Public Policy  (IF4.333),  Pub Date : 2021-04-20, DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12541
Paul Jeffrey Brantingham, George E. Tita, George Mohler

The onset of extreme social distancing measures is expected to have a dramatic impact on crime. Here, we examine the impact of mandated, city-wide social distancing orders aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 on gang-related crime in Los Angeles. We hypothesize that the unique subcultural processes surrounding gangs may supersede calls to shelter in place and allow gang-related crime to persist. If the normal guardianship of people and property is also disrupted by social distancing, then we expect gang violence to increase. Using autoregressive time series models, we show that gang-related crime remained stable and crime hot spots largely stationary following the onset of shelter in place.